What is going on with Unemployment?

The recent headline is that employment in the US is slowing down, as nonfarm payrolls in March grew by 126,000, less than expected and a sign of deceleration. January and February were also revised downward.

The long term trend is still positive however, from a high of around 10% in late 2009 to the current unemployment rate of 5.5%. And there have been some additional very encouraging signs.

In January the voluntary “quit rate” increased to 2%, up from 1.7% the year before. This is considered a sign that workers feel like they have more leverage and are quitting to take better jobs, often with higher pay.

And another new headline shows that unemployment for college graduates over 25 years old is down to 2.5%, the lowest since May 2008.

As of the end of 2014, NYC unemployment was down to about 6.5%, down from a peak of 10.2% in late 2009.

The conclusion could be that we should not be alarmed by the recent jobs report unless the deceleration is more sustained. And if there is a silver lining, home buyers should continue to enjoy historically low mortgage rate for the time being.

 

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